![\"Fergus](\"https:\/\/blogs.gov.scot\/rural-environment\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/34\/2018\/12\/Fergus-and-DR-Collins-1-small-300x200.jpg\")
\u201cAs the deadline to Brexit \u2018D-day\u2019 approaches, we\u2019re gradually beginning to get a clearer picture on what the various scenarios could mean for Scottish industry.<\/p>\n\u201cAs the deadline to Brexit \u2018D-day\u2019 approaches, we\u2019re gradually beginning to get a clearer picture on what the various scenarios could mean for Scottish industry.<\/p>\n
\u201cSome of those arguing the case for leaving the European Union have been keen to reassure UK business that the inevitable downturn or loss in trade to the European market could be seamlessly balanced by out by opportunities to exploit other potentially more lucrative markets, after Brexit.<\/p>\n
\u201cHowever, in every scenario \u2013 even those presented by the UK Government itself \u2013 the experts are forecasting a major downturn in fortunes and, in my opinion, the speculation on alternative markets is hopeful in the extreme.<\/p>\n
\u201cMore importantly that view often fails to take into account the impact that the loss of tariff-free trade, which we currently enjoy with our European neighbours, will have on some of Scotland\u2019s most important industries \u2013 such as sea fisheries, aquaculture and seafood processing.<\/p>\n
\u201cTo put into context, 2017 was another record year for Scottish Food and Drink exports, with overall turnover worth around \u00a314 billion annually, supporting 111,000 jobs, via 17,000 businesses.<\/p>\n
\u201cScottish seafood was a big part of that success, with exports of our marine produce amounting to a total of \u00a3946m worldwide, around 80% of which (\u00a3725m) was sent to our European neighbours. Of the worldwide total, our farmed salmon alone amounted to over \u00a3600m in value.<\/p>\n
\u201cAnd despite Scotland having only a tenth of the total UK population, Scottish landings account for 67% of the value of total UK landings, and our farmed salmon accounts to 94% of the total value of aquaculture production.<\/p>\n
\u201cFisheries and aquaculture then are of massive importance to Scotland, and are proportionately more important to Scotland than other parts of the UK. They are sectors that have gone from strength to strength in recent years.<\/p>\n
\u201cEarlier this year, Marine Scotland researchers published their findings on the potential impact on UK output and trade, in the event of different Brexit trade scenarios that may unfold over the next few months.<\/p>\n
\u201cScenario One was for free trade with the EU and the rest of the world. Scenario Two was for an EU-Norway European Economic Area type agreement (popularly known as the \u2018Norway solution\u2019). Scenario Three was for no preferential trade agreement with the EU, and Scenario Four was for no preferential trade agreements with the EU and the rest of the world.<\/p>\n
\u201c<\/strong>The findings make for stark reading.<\/p>\n \u201cUnder the first scenario \u2013 free trade with the EU and the rest\u00a0of the world\u00a0– the projection is that output and exports would increase by nearly 1% and 2% respectively, relative to baseline without Brexit.<\/p>\n \u201cUnder Scenario Two \u2013 the Norway Solution, we would expect to see a slight dip in output and exports (-1% and -3% respectively).<\/p>\n \u201cHowever, it\u2019s when we get to scenarios three and four that we see a major fall across the board with -6% for exports, and -2.5% in total UK output, with the direct output of Scotland\u2019s seafood sectors potentially lower by up to \u00a350 million* in Scenario Four. Accounting for knock-on impacts across the supply chain, that means that the value of Scotland\u2019s seafood sector could be lower by up to \u00a385 million in total <\/strong>under scenario 4.<\/p>\n \u201cThe research also illustrates the impact that Non-Tariff Measures could have on output and exports, and on Scotland\u2019s economy \u2013 by leading to increases in UK prices, which would ultimately cost Scottish and UK consumers.<\/p>\n \u201cPut simply, the results show that increased trade restrictions from tariffs and Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs) could have a major negative impact on Scotland\u2019s economy. <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n \u201cIn real terms that could be associated with up to 429 fewer jobs<\/strong> and \u00a320 million less<\/strong> in gross value added (GVA) across the economy.<\/p>\n \u201cAs Scotland\u2019s Fisheries Secretary it\u2019s my job to ensure that doesn\u2019t happen, and to secure the best possible outcome for communities reliant on seafood production \u2013 whether that be inshore fishing, offshore fishing or aquaculture.<\/p>\n \u201cOn the flip side, the research clearly shows that for any level of catching opportunity for the UK fishing fleet. If we were to keep Scotland in the EU or the European Single Market, as set out in the Scottish Government\u2019s strategy, Scotland\u2019s Place in Europe<\/em>, then the outcome would be much more positive for wild caught sea fish and farmed salmon products, which is not just good for our fishermen but good for consumers and the wider rural economy.<\/p>\n I\u2019m sure that, whatever the outcome, our fishing and aquaculture industries will demonstrate their usual resolve, and get on with making the best of a bad situation; but it\u2019s entirely within the gift of the UK Government to ensure that they shouldn\u2019t have to.<\/p>\n *Data is calculated relative to 2015 output, export and import figures.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u201cAs the deadline to Brexit \u2018D-day\u2019 approaches, we\u2019re gradually beginning to get a clearer picture on what the various scenarios could mean for Scottish industry. \u201cSome of those arguing the case for leaving the European Union have been keen to reassure UK business that the inevitable downturn or loss in trade to the European market…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":438,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[93,118,56,1],"tags":[125,11,128,95,129],"class_list":["post-572","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-agriculture","category-food-and-drink","category-marine","category-uncategorized","tag-aquaculture","tag-brexit","tag-economic-case","tag-fisheries","tag-tariffs"],"yoast_head":"\n![\"Lobster](\"https:\/\/blogs.gov.scot\/rural-environment\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/34\/2018\/12\/Fergus-Eyemouth-4-small-300x221.jpg\")
\u201cI\u2019m particularly concerned by the potential impact of NTMs on a sector which absolutely relies on the seamless exporting of its fresh products so that they can hit dinner tables around the world in the minimum of time.<\/p>\n![\"Fergus](\"https:\/\/blogs.gov.scot\/rural-environment\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/34\/2018\/12\/Fergus-Eyemouth-1-small-300x201.jpg\")
<\/p>\n